During the mayoral election it was predicted that fares would rise higher and faster under a Tory mayor than they would under Ken Livingstone.

All the indications are that there will be an announcement of a public transport fare increase tomorrow. We will have to see exactly what is announced tomorrow but the signs are not good for fare-payers.

Last year alone Johnson whacked up fares by six per cent overall, and in the case of a single Oyster bus journey by eleven per cent.

Before tomorrow’s announcement we should recall that Boris Johnson’s own actions have directly contributed to the pressure on the fare payer.  Scrapping the western extension of the congestion charge zone, axing the £25 gas guzzler charge, wasting money on removing bendy buses, pulling the plug on the mutually beneficial agreement with Venezuela, and the ongoing exercise of the “New Routemaster”, are all costing Londoners a fortune. The first two of these alone deprives TfL’s projected finances of more than £100million a year: £50m-£70million from the western extension and £50million from the CO2 charge.

Johnson will also no doubt try to pass the buck onto predecessor, who in some ways he is still running against. Yet Ken Livingstone left TfL with healthy reserves, a commitment to retain the whole of the existing congestion charge zone, and new revenue ready to come on stream such as through the gas guzzler initiative. It was a wholly more advantageous financial framework.

There are real pressures because of the economic situation but the mayor is a himself factor in the projected state of TfL’s finances. His actions have consequences. The steps he has taken have already led directly to a higher fares policy, as we saw with last year’s fares package. If Johnson goes down the road of another significant fare rise it will be politically damaging and would send a signal about how the Conservatives intend to handle the economic situation – by making ordinary people pay more. That’s not something that David Cameron would thank him for.

So tomorrow’s coverage ought not to be polarised around the question of transport cuts versus fare increases but also on the choices the mayor has made that are worsening TfL’s financial position by millions of pounds every year (and damaging public transport policy in London).

Finally, there is speculation that the mayor may also announce a raise in the congestion charge, to £10 a day. Dave Hill has flagged this up but has been met with silence from City Hall so far. If the mayor does increase the charge his decision to axe the western half of the zone – thus reducing revenue – would only look all the more ridiculous and counterproductive. He would be charging more but actually reducing income overall.